Compliance markets
CORSIA: aviation becomes the carbon market’s anchor buyer
June 2026 · AGCF Team
International aviation is doing something no other sector has done at this scale: converting a global industry into a mandatory, recurring buyer of carbon credits. Under CORSIA — the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation — airlines must offset international emissions above a baseline set at 85% of 2019 levels.
From voluntary phase to mandatory regime
Phase 1 runs from 2024 through 2026 with participation confirmed by well over a hundred countries, including most high-traffic jurisdictions across North America, Europe, the Gulf and Asia-Pacific. From 2027, Phase 2 makes participation mandatory for the large majority of ICAO member states through 2035. Each phase widens the pool of airlines carrying a fixed compliance obligation — and unlike voluntary corporate demand, this obligation does not soften with sentiment or budget cycles.
A structurally short market
The demand side is arithmetic; the supply side is the constraint. CORSIA-eligible credits must carry host-country authorisation and corresponding adjustments under Article 6 — and that pipeline is being authorised one country at a time. Industry analysis consistently points to a shortfall of eligible supply relative to Phase 1 obligations, with airlines that delay procurement exposed to rising prices and concentrated end-of-period purchasing.
Our perspective
Several themes in AGCF’s pipeline — from blue carbon restoration to improved forest management — are developed with CORSIA eligibility as a design criterion, not an afterthought. In a market where an entire industry must buy and eligible supply is scarce, holding the right credits matters more than holding many.