Nature-based solutions
Why blue carbon commands a premium
March 2026 · AGCF Team
Coastal ecosystems — mangroves, seagrass meadows, tidal marshes — cover less than 2% of the ocean’s surface yet account for close to half of the carbon buried in marine sediments. Mangroves in particular sequester carbon at rates several times higher than terrestrial forests, storing most of it in soils where it can remain locked away for centuries. That combination of density and durability is why “blue carbon” has become one of the most sought-after segments of the carbon market.
A small market growing fast
Blue carbon remains a small fraction of total credit issuance, and mangrove projects dominate it — accounting for roughly two-thirds of segment revenue — thanks to proven restoration techniques and high carbon density. Industry projections see the market roughly tripling by 2035, with large-scale restoration expanding across Southeast Asia, West Africa and Latin America. Demand, meanwhile, is consistently reported to be outpacing verified supply, and blue carbon credits trade at a sustained premium to the broader nature-based average.
Integrity is the differentiator
The premium is not automatic. Measuring soil carbon across tidal ecosystems is scientifically demanding, and only projects with rigorous measurement, additionality and community foundations meet the integrity thresholds that sophisticated buyers now require. The gap between credible and questionable blue carbon is wide — and widening.
Our perspective
Mangrove and blue carbon restoration anchors the removal side of AGCF’s pipeline for exactly these reasons: durable sequestration, strong co-benefits — coastal protection, fisheries, biodiversity — and compliance-scheme eligibility, in a segment where verified supply is structurally scarce. Scarcity rewards those who can actually deliver.